The French champions may have lost two of their iconic players over the summer, but that might have increased their chances of success in Europe
This is it, the start of the competition that unites the footballing world in ridicule towards Paris Saint-Germain. Jamie Carragher laughed on live TV when they were knocked out of last season's competition. dubbed Bayern Munich simply "too good" for PSG. , PSG’s most controversially ardent press outlet, said "defeat is a culture"at the club.
So begins another chance to pre-write those headlines, practice the chuckles, and prepare the thought pieces. This season, though, there is something vaguely interesting brewing in Paris. PSG are not entirely run by superstars or massive media interests anymore – there's a shred of independence here, now. Their manager is notorious for being, well, a bit mean. They made 10 signings this summer, three were free agents, and all but one were under 27. This is a massive departure from the status quo.
As with any year – with this iteration of immensely talented players – PSG should do enough to win Ligue 1. They tried everything to lose it last season, but the form of Kylian Mbappe, now friends with the hierarchy again, rescued them.
But the Champions League is the real test. It is perhaps the curse of playing in a comparably less competitive league that success shall be judged from elsewhere. PSG have no real challengers at home; eyes must turn abroad instead. And so they will again, with a retooled squad hoping to go where — or, more accurately, further than — any PSG side has been before.
GettyHow to measure success
It’s hard to track what, exactly, PSG want out of this all. Certainly, like any other team, they will want to win the whole competition. Even first-time entrants Union Berlin wouldn’t mind lifting the trophy. But this is an increasingly predictable competition where realistic expectations have to come into play. Real Madrid have played in five of the last 10 finals. Only once in the last decade years has a team from outside of Europe’s top five leagues reached the semi-finals. PSG, as big as they are, have been outsiders for some time now.
Indeed, AC Milan and Inter’s runs to last year’s semi-final were wholesome outliers, fun stories rather than expected success. This is a very difficult competition to become a contender for. Even pedigree teams that aren’t supposed to make big runs, do so anyway. Real Madrid looked, on paper, to be the weaker side in almost every clash of their successful 2022 campaign. But, whether by mythology, luck, or the right foot of Karim Benzema, they ended up winning the whole thing.
This is all to say that expectations, sans Lionel Messi and Neymar, have somehow been lowered. PSG appear to be markedly better than in year’s past, a more balanced, interesting, and organised unit. But continental football so often falls back on its star players. And PSG now have one instead of three – eliminating the power struggle that had damaged their hopes for years.
That has certainly helped so far from a footballing perspective. But it might be handy in terms of pressure, too. The Champions League tends to be the first time every year that fans, media, and Twitter fanboys interact with PSG outside of France. The Parisians, in recent years, were evaluated by the notoriety of their names, rather than the relative performance in a 3-0 away win to Nantes.
So, when it comes to continental showings, Europe expects. Messi and Neymar were serial winners, and, for players of their quality, anything less than a trophy is considered a failure. Very few, it is fair to assume, will criticise Randal Kolo Muani, for example, if he is unable to lead PSG to Champions League glory. For the first time in years, there’s some room for failure in Paris.
AdvertisementGettyLuis Enrique's knockout football struggles
Not that their manager will accept a meagre exit. Luis Enrique's knockout football resume is mixed. The manager has overseen Spain in the World Cup and European Championships and managed Barcelona three times in the Champions League. He led the Blaugrana to European glory in rampant fashion eight years ago, piecing together the perfect system that allowed Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar to tear through Europe. They battered Bayern Munich 5-3 on aggregate. They laid waste to PSG, 5-1. Their final victory was a remarkably comfortable 3-1 win over Juventus.
Since then, though, his tournament credentials are up for debate. Barca failed to make it past the last eight in his following two seasons at the helm. His time as Spain manager is even more mixed, as Luis Enrique never really convinced while coaching his national side. He was working in a difficult era, with La Roja's 'golden generation' that won three major trophies on the trot all retiring and aging, and an impressive talent pool, led by Gavi and Pedri, yet to mature.
The now-PSG boss can argue, with some merit, that he didn't have a top-class striker for clinical moments (Alvaro Morata, it turns out, isn't really that good). But the reality is far more complex. Luis Enrique is an ardent believer in a sort of remodeled, revamped, less-impressive tiki-taka. PSG press when they don't have the ball, but only because they need to have it.
For most managers these days, football is about controlling space, winning the ball in the right area, and hitting on the break. Luis Enrique, though, likes to keep the ball. His philosophy of football isn't as direct. And that, arguably is what cost Spain – who never made a major final despite the wealth of talent in the squad. They were too delicate in their passing, too perfectionist in their hunt for the right angle, the killer ball. Tactical adaptability is vital once the knockout stages hit. PSG don't really have it. That could be costly.
Getty'The Group of Death'
That is, assuming they make it to the latter stages. PSG have been unfortunate enough to be drawn into the closest thing to a dreaded 'Group of Death' this season. As a slate, it certainly looks tricky. PSG are surely favourites to advance, but they will face stern competition from Borussia Dortmund, Milan and Newcastle.
Of course, not every game will be a hotly-contested clash. Dortmund, minus Jude Bellingham, are far from the Bundesliga title contenders of last year. Newcastle, despite all of the hype around their first full Saudi-funded season, have endured a horrible start to the Premier League. That leaves only Milan, fresh off a 5-1 thrashing to Inter, as the Parisians' most realistic challengers.
But so often, for teams that only flirt with the elite, quality can only be enough for so long. The Champions League is when teams tend to play their best, and home advantage can be everything. Newcastle will be made buoyant by the hum and buzz of St James's Park. Milan will surely want to repeat – or better – their semi-final run of last year. And no one ever really wants to play in front of the dreaded Yellow Wall at the Westfalenstadion.
Their group, then, should be considered the ultimate test of their credentials, a measuring stick of legitimacy. If PSG win their home games, and grab at least a point away from home, they will likely be in the knockouts, with room to spare. Beat Dortmund on Tuesday, get a result at St James' Park and there will be enough to suggest that they could make some noise.
GettyHow do they do it?
There is no real singular formula for Champions League success. But there are some constants to be found over the past five winning teams. All tend to be incredibly well-balanced teams. All are, first and foremost, reliable defensively with a top-tier shot-stopper between the posts. And, perhaps most tellingly, except one – with apologies to 2020 Champions League final goalscorer Kai Havertz – have had at least one elite forward in their ranks to grab the timely goals.
PSG, then, have some of the makings of that. Their defence, with Nuno Mendes and Achraf Hakimi on either side, and Milan Skriniar and Marquinhos in the middle, is an interesting mix of youth and experience. Inter fans will argue that Skriniar, in his six years at the club, was the most underrated centre-back on the planet.
In the midfield, things can change a bit, but it seems so far that Manuel Ugarte and Warren Zaire-Emery are guaranteed starters, while Vitinha, Fabian Ruiz or Lee Kang-in can round out the trio. This is probably where the weakest area; if PSG are to be exploited anywhere, it is in their lack of midfielder depth.
Up front, though, is where the Parisians can be dangerous. Ousmane Dembele is a top right-winger who could finally realise his potential after a much-needed move out of Barcelona. Kolo Muani, Goncalo Ramos and Marco Asensio are all good options through the middle.
And in that third slot is probably the player who needs to win the Champions League the most. Mbappe seemed set to leave this summer, but pledged that he would spend at least one more season in Paris — with the goal of European success central to his decision. He could be the true difference maker, a player equal parts prolific and clutch. Hat-tricks in World Cup finals aren't an easy thing; Mbappe made it look routine. If there ever was a modern forward for a big game, Mbappe is that player.
So, the components are nearly there, while the manager has a point to prove. Realistically, this is not a Champions League winning team. Manchester City, as in every year, will be the favourites. A few others – Bayern Munich, Madrid, Arsenal, Barcelona – will all probably be favoured over the Parisians. But, for once, there's a clear model for why, and how, it could happen. Maybe that hope is enough.