It’s a mismatch India are primed to exploit, and Australia will need to find ways to stop that happening
Andrew Fidel Fernando03-Mar-20252:26
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Australia’s second string has for many decades been the best second string in cricket. But on Tuesday that second string will be up against one of cricket’s modern-day ODI powerhouses: India’s top order.Between them, seamers Nathan Ellis Spencer Johnson and Ben Dwarshuis, who all played in Australia’s most recent match against Afghanistan, have 20 ODI appearances. Between India’s top three, they have… uhh… 91 ODI centuries.Yes, Australia tend to roll through oppositions in big tournaments. Yes, they get to semi-finals, and somehow find the knack of winning big games. But you look at these three guys in yellow, and those three guys in blue, and it is difficult to come to any other conclusion: this is a mismatch. The biggest one there is in this semi-final.Related
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Some caveats, before we get ahead of ourselves. Ellis has been unlucky to play as few as 11 ODIs, given his exploits in Australia’s T20 circuit, of which the Big Bash League is the main component. His style of bowling – bustling medium-pace with an array of variations – is likely to be suited to the dry Dubai surface on which the match will be played. Expect fingers to be rolled over the ball when Ellis is bowling on Tuesday.Johnson is tall, left-armed, and quick, but no one is yet making serious comparisons to that other Johnson, this new one having only played 13 internationals. Expect sharp Johnson spells to come through the middle overs, which in the latest iteration of the ODI game have become a glorious canvas for strategy, after having been derided as boring for decades.Where batting teams still want to see those overs through without much damage, bowling sides send their wicket-taking bowlers to the frontlines, and frequently these prompt either collapses or counter-attacks. Can Johnson be one of those big middle-overs’ bowlers? Right now, he averages 59 after five ODIs.Dwarshuis, meanwhile, is the least likely to play. He has only four ODIs on his record, and even fewer T20Is. On a Dubai surface which is likely to favour spin, Australia may pick legspinner Tanveer Sangha, who has played three ODIs. There is perhaps caution in the India team against Australia, a longtime nemesis, and a perennial ruiner of everybody else’s big-tournament plans. But if there is a softness to this Australia side that opponents can exploit, it’s their bowling.Will Australia bring in Tanveer Sangha to shore up their spin resources?•AFP/Getty ImagesOn top of this, India can hardly be better-placed to bear down on Australia. Virat Kohli and Shubman Gill already have hundreds in this tournament. Shreyas Iyer has more cumulative runs – 150 – than any other India batter. In the match against New Zealand, even Hardik Pandya and Axar Patel contributed encouraging innings.”The last match was brilliant for us in terms of the middle order getting an opportunity to try and set up the target,” captain Rohit Sharma said ahead of the semi-final. India had been 30 for 3, before Iyer struck up partnerships with Axar and then KL Rahul to revive the innings. Hardik then contributed a run-a-ball 45. “The middle order is very experienced in terms of the number of games they’ve played, but just to get some time in the middle, and to get those runs, and get that fighting total, was very important from our standpoint. In all, I think it was the perfect game we wanted.”Australia now have decisions in front of them. They had played Dwarshuis perhaps on the theory that England are suspect against left-arm pace. Dwarshuis took 3 for 66 in that high-scoring game, and also took three wickets against Afghanistan to complicate things for the selectors. If they play only two seamers on Tuesday, whom do they drop? Ellis is the proven domestic performer, and Johnson brings the left-arm pace. Do they risk playing a third seamer? Dwarshuis has slower balls and variations too.Tall, left-armed and quick, but no one is as yet comparing this Johnson to the other one•ICC via Getty ImagesWhoever plays, India are primed to be effective. Perhaps primed to maul them into oblivion, even. Adam Zampa is around, but he can only control a fifth of Australia’s overs. Where are the other 20 overs of spin going to come from (you probably need about 30 all up)? Glenn Maxwell is good for seven or eight. Travis Head could bowl a few. Steven Smith no longer fancies rolling his arm over. If Sangha plays, or left-arm spin bowling allrounder Cooper Connolly plays, it does not solve the issue of inexperience.If there is an Australia vs India match that India should dominate, this is the one.That other teams believe India have notable advantages in this tournament is no secret. And so far, India have crushed all three oppositions, to such an extent that they have created selection dilemmas for themselves: if only three spinners can play against Australia, will they really leave out Varun Chakravarthy?But it is through their batting that India are best-placed to knock Australia out of this tournament. Kohli, Rohit, Gill and Co coming up against Ellis, Johnson and Dwarshuis. There are clear imbalances here for India to exploit, whatever the history.